Step aside, March Madness. It’s time for MIDTERM MADNESS!!!
I gotta say, I get pretty darn jacked-up with elections. Ya know, the biggies…like the upcoming midterms…and of course, the Super Bowl of elections…El Presidente.
Not so keen on stolen elections. Total buzz kill. But we won’t go there. Not today.
Shit, I used to find things like dating a new hot chick…especially one with, shall we say, a morally casual attitude…exciting. Or a drunken road trip with my buddies. Now I get my jollies from elections. And polling. How lame and pathetic, right? What the hell has happened to me?
Just a shadow of my old self, I guess. My wife is nodding in furious agreement.
So…is it gonna be a RED WAVE? Is it not gonna be a red wave? Inquiring minds want to know.
Well, let me put it this way…A Kotex factory won’t be able to contain THIS red wave.
OK, that was wrong, and I apologize profusely.
Now, we’re not gonna see a “wave” like in 2010 with the Tea Party stuff…spawned, of course from Obamacare being shoved down everyone’s throats. GOP gained like 63 House seats. You’re just not gonna see numbers like that again.
Why? Couple reasons.
Since 2010, there’s been about a dozen years of both parties gerrymandering their asses off, which simply results in a lesser number of competitive congressional districts over time.
Secondly, one must also remember that the Democrats were predicted to gain House seats in 2020…anywhere between 4 and 11 seats according to Nate Silver’s famous prognosticating organization, FiveThirtyEight, the Left’s Holy Grail.
But instead, the GOP gained 14. Someone needed to get their ass fired over THAT epic miss. Make no mistake…the RED WAVE in the House of Representatives started in 2020, which will effectively depress the 2022 gains somewhat.
Still, the GOP will end up with a healthy House majority, and take the Senate.
Yep. The Senate. Toss-up, my ass. That’s like calling the odds of whether J Lo has dinner Saturday night with me or Ben Affleck…a “toss-up.”
Despite the Senate map favoring Democrats…meaning that the Republicans are defending way more seats…the GOP needs a net increase of one lousy seat for Senate control.
Shit, even the Democrats won’t be able to cheat enough to prevent THAT! Um…Probably.
And while Americans are getting destroyed by inflation, energy costs, a border catastrophe, and bone-crushing crime…the Pink-O-Crats have campaigned on Jan 6, climate change, abortion, Orange Man Bad, and transgender obsession.
Even a Gender Studies major MIGHT be able to do THAT math.
One of the biggest scam’s going, of course, is polling. Most polls are complete crapola. They purposely over-poll Democrats, and struggle to find Republicans to even talk to them anymore because of the constant demonization by Democrats and their submissive media whores.
Then, an outfit like Real Clear Politics…another Holy Grail of the Left…laughably pretends that “averaging” polls somehow smooths out the volatility and yields something meaningful.
Except an average of a bunch of shit polls still gives you shit…as in, shit divided by 50 still equals shit.
The only poll worth your time is Trafalgar. Period. Well, I’ll give Rasmussen an honorable mention. But that’s it.
Trafalgar has been one of the most accurate pollsters the past few election cycles, and like the ONLY one that actually picked Trump to beat the Hildabeast in 2016. They’ve found innovative ways to both find “real” voters…particularly Republicans who are loath to talk to pollsters…and entice them to actually participate.
Even Robert Cahaly, the dude who runs Trafalgar, said in a recent interview that folks should generally take polling with a grain of salt, “and this is coming from a guy who does it and had the lowest error rate of any of them consistently for the last six years.”
This guy Cahaly is truly the Tom Brady of polling. Albeit, with her lazy eye and gimpy leg, his wife is no Gisele Bundchen…pending divorce notwithstanding.
My advice? Use all those other Lefty suppression polls to line Gerry the Gerbil’s cage or house train your new puppy Spike, go to the Trafalgar website, and take a look at his polls. There will be hits and misses to be sure, but it’s the only one worth checking out to at least get a sense of where things REALLY stand.
OK, enough yakking. Prediction Time…
GOP takes the House with 240 seats, and the Senate with 52. Minimum.
And if I’m wrong, I’ll be man enough to make up some really good excuses.