Many things in life seem to come in three’s, don’t they?
Well…the final installment of the highly acclaimed “Why Trump Wins” trilogy is definitely no exception.
Look…Biden and his AOC loving Commie Crackpots have a conga line of crap policies and baggage longer than Michael Moore’s unfurled belt that could make Sleepy Joe go night night for good…
Jacking up economy crushing taxes and regulations…The court packing BS he won’t answer…decades of proven corruption by the Biden Crime Family selling influence and selling out the country…repeated promises to destroy fracking and the fossil fuel industry, and by extension, THE EFFING ECONOMY AND ENERGY INDEPENDENCE…
Protecting Antifa Anarchists and BLM Marxists by ignoring burning and looted cities…revert back to every failed foreign policy position championed for decades by the DC establishment swamp…spend trillions on some version of The Loony Tunes Green New Deal…and every fact pattern indicating there would be AT LEAST a million COVID deaths under the stewardship of Jerk-Off Joe (see H1N1)…
I could go on and on ad nauseam like the Rain Man reciting baseball statistics.
So recently, Trump has pretty consistently been right around where he was in the battleground state polls in 2016…or slighty better, generally.
In 2016…despite Crooked Cackling Hillary’s supposed” ~90% win probability…two specific things jumped out at me that, in my mind, made a Trump victory a distinct possibility, thereby rendering most polling about as useful as a family pack of Charmin.
And those two specific things…which I fully believe in my gut gave him the White House…are not only alive and well again, but on friggin’ steroids.
I’m talking full on, testicle shrinking, Sammy Sosa/Mark McGwire/Barry Bonds steroids.
The first and most obvious is ENTHUSIASM. The enthusiasm gap between Trump and Sleepy makes the Grand Canyon look like a NYC pothole.
It’s clear that Trump supporters would walk through hot coals and broken glass to vote for the guy. And I have the bloody, scorched feet to prove it.
For better or worse…worse if you ask the Mrs…I watch almost every Trump rally on TV. Sometimes two or three a day. It’s my Happy Place these days.
Yes, I need help. I know.
My name is Drunken Republican and I’m a Trumpaholic.
HELLO DRUNKEN REPUBLICAN!!!
Anyway, being a Trump Rally Idiot Savant of sorts, I can tell you the enthusiasm for Trump in 2020…remarkably…is more rabid than even 2016. And 2016 was off-the-charts.
The Donald gets tens of thousands at a rally on barely a day’s notice to stand in hours long lines in excruciating heat…bone-chilling cold…AND IN THE MIDDLE OF A PANDEMIC, FOR SHIT’S SAKE!
Biden doesn’t get ten of thousands. Just tens. A baker’s dozen on a good day. Sad. Pathetic. Embarrassing.
A dude in a coma exhibits vastly more enthusiasm than Biden voters.
Traditional polling reflects NONE OF THIS. ZIPPO. NADA. Not then. Not now.
And it’s not just Trump’s own raucous rallies.
Trump Rallies organically popping up EVERYWHERE…boat rallies, road rallies, street corner rallies, motorcycle rallies…totally independent of the Trump campaign.
Well…Biden DID have one boat rally…two old canoes, a dinghy, and a rubber ducky with a slow leak.
But there’s yet another thing that makes the polls even more worthless than a eunuch at the Bunny Ranch.
Remember Hillary’s Infamous “Deplorable” Debacle? “Irredeemable” too. Can’t forget that.
This unprecedented attack on a candidate’s “supporters” not only pissed people off bigly AND jacked-up enthusiasm…IT CAUSED THEM TO CLAM UP.
Not talk to pollsters. Or lie to pollsters. Or just tell them to F off.
And over the past four years?
We have devolved from simply the “proud deplorables” shtick to Trumpsters being racist, bigoted, misogynistic, homophobic, Hitler-like pieces of shit that are routinely cold-cocked in the streets for wearing a red cap, and thrown out of restaurants and stores.
Even worse…this garbage BS has been totally mainstreamed…Dem politicians, Scumbag Lib talking heads. In your face 24/7.
YOU ARE A HORRIBLE KNUCKLE-DRAGGING RACIST NEANDERTHAL IF YOU SUPPORT TRUMP.
So…YOU gonna tell ANYONE…pollsters or ANYBODY…you support Trump? Really??? (Obnoxious bloviators like me notwithstanding).
DO. NOT. UNDERESTIMATE. THIS.
If you think the Trumpsters didn’t talk to pollsters in 2016…say hello to my little friend, 2020.
They call them the “shy” or “invisible” Trump voter. The “hidden” vote, if you will.
Bottom line…Both the insane enthusiasm and attacks on Trump supporters rendered polling complete and utter excrement in 2016…and these two factors have been ratcheted-up exponentially in 2020.
It’s simple cause and effect. The battleground state polling in 2016 was simply wrong. 2020 will be MORE wrong.
Still, the dumbass Leftist wackos have simultaneous, toe-curling orgasms every time they recite in unison the nonsensical REAL CLEAR POLITICS POLLING AVERAGES or numbers from another Lib fav for phony polls, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.
Speaking of polling…Trafalgar Group pollster Robert Cahaly is predicting a 2020 Trump victory…AGAIN.
He not only predicted Trump’s 2016 victory AND called the exact electoral vote count…he was the ONLY one that correctly called the 2018 Florida Governor’s race for Ron DeSantis…who the polling “averages” showed significantly behind the day before the election
That’s what you call a mad track record. He said the following recently about the other crap polls…
“It seems rather strange to me they haven’t learned any lessons. They say they corrected things. That is nonsense.”
Dude knows his shit. Period. Dismiss him at your own risk.
A few other key things to remember:
- Trump scored 306 electoral votes in 2016. Needs 270. He can lose a couple states he won in 2016 and still win. OK, probably not Florida.
- In 2016, many likely dismissed Trump as this obnoxious blowhard throwing out a bunch of empty promises. Turns out he kept most of these promises. And then some. Now, he not only has the power of incumbency…but a stellar record of accomplishment. A powerful one-two punch that would take Iron Mike Tyson to the mat.
- Trump’s massive increase in support from Blacks and Hispanics is scaring the bejeezus out of the Dem-O-Schmucks, and cannot be underestimated. This is HUGE.
That’s what SHE said.
Sorry for that…I’m a 12-year-old boy trapped in a 58-year-old man’s body.
Look…eyes wide open…I don’t have a crystal ball, and God knows Trump has plenty of headwinds wreaking havoc on that orange mane of his.
But he also has ALL the momentum. And the hot-off-the-presses 33.1% GDP growth in the 3rd Qtr gives Trump a nice closing message.
Think of it this way…while losing a few battles along the way…Trump has won EVERY war with the Left. Every effing one.
The 2016 election. Russian collusion. The Wall. Brett Kavanaugh. Impeachment. Amy Coney Barrett.
Trump is a winner. Betting against him NOW is a sucker’s bet.
As far as I’m concerned, the smart money is on history repeating itself.
In the end, the only REAL difference between now and 2016 is that in 2016…they didn’t see it coming.
You’re right again! Trump has sooooo much going for him and the enthusiasm of his supporters is as extreme as ever. Trump should win by a landslide, but he won’t. Joe Biden has only one thing going for him and that’s the hatred of Donald Trump. The Trump Haters are seething and waiting for their day to express it. Most (normal) people don’t like to display their Hatred publicly, so they are keeping it to themselves and going to the polls (or mailbox). That’s the silent majority this time.
Trump will turn out to be the best thing that has ever happened for the Democrats and I blame Trump for the next 4 years of a Bidden Administration.
I look forward to January 20, 2021 as the day I rejoin the Republican Party and start the campaign to make Joe Bidden/Harris another one-term President. Maybe Bidden will be the best thing that has ever happened for the Republicans. But next time, we need a Good Candidate, with character, vision, policy and action.
The point of the enthusiasm gap is that it’s not reflected in the phony polls. Nor are the verbal and physical attacks on Trump supporters. The RCP polling averages are nothing more than a flimsy house of cards. Just like 2016.
Again, I could be wrong.
But my advice is to be prepared to rejoin the Republican Party on Jan 20, 2025.
This has been an enjoyable read, this trilogy. Tom says it much more eloquently than I do. You totally underestimated how many moderates like this registered Republican have been sickened and disenfranchised by this fecal stain of a human in the White House. He has cheated his way through life and was woefully incapable and incompetent as President. Like Tom, I really hope that as time passes, you will come to your senses on this and realize what a disaster and a false prophet Donald J Trump was. He didn’t lose the election because of fraud. He lost the election because he is a terrible human being and thankfully enough of us were able to look beyond our political leanings to put him out of a job.
I get it, you were terribly excited to see someone mobilize Conservatives after eight years of Obama and eight years of Clinton, sandwiched around a disastrous Bush presidency that bogged us down in a hopeless and unnecessary military conflict and a financial implosion in 2008.
I really hope the GOP raises the bar in 2024 and brings us a candidate who actually subscribes to policies of fiscal responsibility and also believes in the basic merits of science. The defining moment and turning point of this presidency was the COVID-19 pandemic and as much as you like to think so, Trump did not pass the test. The job was not over when he implemented a PARTIAL travel ban from China and Europe. This situation deserved a leader who listened to science, not mocked it, and made decisions based on what was best for our country, not based on what he thought would win him an election.
Donald Trump was an epic failure as a President, just as he is an epic failure as a narcissistic dishonest wretched cheating human that he is and always will be.
Bring back some decent and humble people into the equation, you might be surprised how many of us might listen.
Hey Don, pack your bags. You’re done, thankfully.